Preseason Rankings
Kansas St.
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#14
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#315
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 9.4% 9.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 19.7% 39.3% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 39.2% 39.3% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 54.6% 39.3% 2.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.4% 77.5% 28.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.1% 74.2% 28.2%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 6.9
.500 or above 89.2% 89.3% 48.5%
.500 or above in Conference 71.7% 71.7% 20.3%
Conference Champion 15.7% 15.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 4.2% 11.6%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 0.3%
First Round76.5% 76.6% 28.9%
Second Round57.0% 57.1% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen33.5% 33.6% 4.3%
Elite Eight18.1% 18.1% 1.0%
Final Four8.9% 9.0% 0.0%
Championship Game4.3% 4.3% 0.0%
National Champion2.4% 2.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.5 - 4.72.5 - 4.7
Quad 1b3.2 - 2.35.7 - 7.0
Quad 25.5 - 2.011.2 - 9.0
Quad 35.2 - 0.716.5 - 9.8
Quad 44.7 - 0.121.1 - 9.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 338   Kennesaw St. W 81-54 99.8%   
  Nov 12, 2018 200   Denver W 76-59 97%    
  Nov 16, 2018 273   Eastern Kentucky W 80-59 97%    
  Nov 18, 2018 125   Penn W 74-62 85%    
  Nov 19, 2018 51   Missouri W 69-64 67%    
  Nov 24, 2018 185   Lehigh W 81-65 96%    
  Dec 01, 2018 24   @ Marquette W 75-73 46%    
  Dec 08, 2018 98   @ Tulsa W 74-64 73%    
  Dec 15, 2018 85   Georgia St. W 73-64 85%    
  Dec 19, 2018 163   Southern Miss W 75-60 94%    
  Dec 22, 2018 83   Vanderbilt W 73-64 84%    
  Dec 29, 2018 129   George Mason W 76-64 89%    
  Jan 02, 2019 26   Texas W 66-64 66%    
  Jan 05, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech W 68-65 49%    
  Jan 09, 2019 11   West Virginia L 70-71 58%    
  Jan 12, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. W 73-70 50%    
  Jan 16, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 79-74 58%    
  Jan 19, 2019 28   TCU W 73-70 67%    
  Jan 22, 2019 29   Texas Tech W 68-65 68%    
  Jan 26, 2019 64   @ Texas A&M W 72-66 61%    
  Feb 02, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-66 65%    
  Feb 05, 2019 1   Kansas L 69-74 43%    
  Feb 09, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 70-65 55%    
  Feb 12, 2019 26   @ Texas W 66-64 48%    
  Feb 16, 2019 30   Iowa St. W 73-70 69%    
  Feb 18, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 70-71 38%    
  Feb 23, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 74-66 81%    
  Feb 25, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 69-74 25%    
  Mar 02, 2019 48   Baylor W 70-65 74%    
  Mar 04, 2019 28   @ TCU W 73-70 49%    
  Mar 09, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 79-74 75%    
Projected Record 21.1 - 9.9 10.4 - 7.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.7 4.0 3.1 1.6 0.3 15.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.3 0.2 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.2 3.8 1.0 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.2 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.5 5.4 6.8 8.7 10.3 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.8 7.7 5.4 3.3 1.6 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 94.6% 3.1    2.7 0.4
15-3 75.3% 4.0    2.8 1.1 0.1
14-4 47.9% 3.7    1.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 24.1% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 10.1 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.4% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 1.7 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.7% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.3 1.9 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.8% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 3.0 1.0 2.5 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.8% 99.6% 12.9% 86.7% 4.1 0.2 1.2 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 11.4% 99.2% 11.9% 87.3% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
10-8 11.1% 94.1% 9.7% 84.4% 6.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 93.5%
9-9 10.3% 84.4% 6.3% 78.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 83.4%
8-10 8.7% 60.5% 5.0% 55.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 58.4%
7-11 6.8% 31.7% 4.8% 26.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 28.3%
6-12 5.4% 9.0% 3.6% 5.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 5.6%
5-13 3.5% 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.5%
4-14 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.4% 12.5% 64.9% 4.9 9.4 10.2 10.7 8.8 8.0 7.5 6.8 5.6 4.4 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 22.6 74.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.0 12.0